Monday, October 12, 2009

Yet More Bill

Sept. 2009 and Bill Evans at Westpac continues to hold a big lead over the rest of the field:


Meanwhile the CBA has been asking the question: “How good are economic forecasters?”  A good question given where they are on the ladder.  Have a look at the article here.

One of the conclusions is:

But CommSec did find that a good approach for investors was to follow the consensus. An average of the
20 forecasters consistently outperformed the majority of individual forecasters over differing time periods. Of the 77 indicators tracked, the consensus economic forecast picked the direction of movement 78 per cent of the time. And on 60 per cent of occasions the consensus result was amongst the top forecasts.

Check their findings against the “Avg” indicator above – looks like pretty good advice to me.  The only better advice would be “follow Westpac” which would be reasonably courageous for a CBA economist.

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