Kangaroo Beaters

 

 

 

This may be slightly off-topic, but I see that the RSPCA is setting a nationwide dragnet to catch the dickheads who filmed themselves beating a kangaroo senseless.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Could I suggest that they start their search at CBA's marketing department?

The Cairns-Connor Testimony

I've just been listening to RBA Governor Glenn Stevens giving his report to the House of Reps standing committee on economics.  A copy of his crib notes is here.  I must say the report was fairly uninspiring stuff, and I can't help thinking that what it really needs is some pizzazz, starting with the name of the presentation.  At the moment it's presented as follows:

Title: House of Representatives Standing Committee: Economics (Reserve Bank of Australia Annual Report 2007) (HMS 9)

Contrast that with the US, where a similar report done by the Fed to Congress is known as the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, so named for a couple of pollies (Gus Hawkins and Hubert Horatio Humphrey) who did the spadework on related legislation back in the 70's.  How snappy is that?

Assuming we want to mimic the American approach (why not - we do everywhere else), what heroes of 1970's economic reform can we use?  Lacking any pollies with "Horatio" in their name closes off that avenue of thought, but for economic events of earth-shaking significance it's tough to go past the Jim Cairns - Rex Connor - Tirath Khemlani loans scandal.  Read about it here.  It's got a bit of everything - the dreamy academic turned Federal Treasurer; the old school ALP/Communist Party man turned Federal Minerals & Energy Minister, the shadowy Pakistani banker with supposed access to billions of petrodollars, the Carlton Football Club (!) and last but by no means least the sultry private secretary romantically linked to Cairns.  It's pure soap opera, and played no small part in the eventual dismissal of the Whitlam government.

 

Cairns	Connor	Khemlani	Carlton	Morosi

League Table Update

Yesterday's RBA rate cut didn't have a huge impact on the results of the tipsters below.  However, ANZ did extend their lead a bit as my team were a bit slower in latching onto the rate cut story earlier in the year.

The thought occurs that we really need to get Bendigo Bank's forecasts into the mix.  Anyone that can get away with the advertising campaign they had during the Olympics deserves attention!

The Seven Year Itch

After seven years of relentless rate hikes the RBA has handed out a 0.25% rate cut with more to follow from reading the text of statement.  Lots more, if you can believe the futures traders:

A timely article on Crikey immediately struck a chord (click it for the full text):

Hurtling Towards Recession?

Hurtling Towards Recession? Is the Australian economy hurtling towards recession ? A glance at today's labour force numbers (+10,000) suggests not, but check the SFE Bill rate tracker: That looks like 3 rate cuts in 5 months. Clearly we're on target for another soft landing.
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More Kudos to ANZ

More Kudos to ANZ. Hats off to the boys (and girls) at ANZ for making public a chart pack prepared for the Asset/Liability management committee. They do this each quarter, and it contains lots of good stuff, such as:

ANZ are one of the few (only?) forecasters calling for two more rate hikes, but note the subsequent plummet. And how long has it been since 90 day Bills were below cash?

While we're on the subject of kudos, the June '08 forecasting results are in, with ANZ again holding on to pole position:
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The $64,000 Question

The $64,000 Question.
From the minutes of the RBA's May meeting: "The question therefore remained whether the setting of monetary policy was sufficiently restrictive to secure low inflation over time. Members spent considerable time discussing the case for a further rise in the cash rate. But on balance, given the substantial tightening in financial conditions since mid 2007, and the extent of uncertainty surrounding the outlook, the Board decided that it was appropriate to allow the current setting of monetary policy more time to work. However, should demand not slow as expected or should expectations of high ongoing inflation begin to affect wage and price setting, the outlook, and the stance of policy, would need to be reviewed. The Board would need to evaluate prospects for economic activity and inflation in the light of incoming information. So what's the likely upshot of all this? Who better to ask than the current leaders of the Weatherman's tipsters league table. "We now expect economic growth and inflation to remain higher for longer. We believe this will prompt the RBA to raise interest rates at least once and probably twice in the second half of this year." ANZ
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Of Bulldogs and Budgets

Of Bulldogs and Budgets. Some time ago, Tim Colebatch (writing in The Age) proffered the opinion that a May rate rise was about as likely as a Bulldogs premiership. As the doggies were fetchin 50:1 at the time this seemed a bit far-fetched, but mark the following developments: -rates weren't hiked in May -odds on a Bulldogs flag now 11:1. If things keep going like this a rate hike and a Bulldogs premiership will be inevitable. Our new Federal Treasurer is doing his bit as well. The only really anti inflationary measures in his first budget were the repeated statements about how anti-inflationary it was. As a result, my money's still on a rate hike later in the year.
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The CBA PR Machine

The CBA PR Machine. Some nice coverage for the CBA in today's Age, suggesting that they may not follow the recent home loan rate rises pushed through by the other majors (including NAB's inspired ANZAC day hike). Have I missed something? Weren't CBA the first of the major banks to hike rates in this round, right after St George? I guess it's just another example of the power of CBA's PR folk, together with their kamikaze koalas.
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The Most Useless Man in Australia?

The most useless man in Australia? They better not be referring to Michael Clarke, who as we all know, is a dead set legend. - RBA Governor Stevens, on the other hard, seems to be some distance off dead set legend status, thanks to a tendency to meet alarming inflation numbers with interest rate increases. We wonder what will happen if today's off-the-scale PPI numbers (1.9% vs. market forecast of 1%.) translate into similar CPI numbers. What price another rate hike? Will the fear of adjectives even harsher than 'useless' steer the RBA in another direction? Or is Michael Clarke really to blame for all this?
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